The What Ifs of History

Hello, Nicola here. Lately I’ve been thinking quite a lot about the “what ifs” of history, those moments when the future and sometimes the fate of nations hangs in the balance and when history could have turned out so differently. What if Wellington had lost the Battle of Waterloo? He said himself that it was “the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.” What if the Roman Empire had never fallen? What if the South had won the Civil War? I read a brilliant article once on what would have happened if the infamous British weather had not played havoc with the invasion of the Spanish Armada in 1588. Counterfactual or alternative history is a fascinating topic for historians to speculate about. It’s also a very imaginative area for a writer to explore.

What got me started on alternative history this time around was the discussion we had here on the Wench blog about our favourite mystery and crime reads. Qute a few of us mentioned The Daughter of Time by Josephine Tey as one of our favourites for it’s brilliant sleuthing and its characterisation. The Daughter of Time looks at an enduring historical mystery - who murdered the Princes in the Tower? It also prompts the question of what might have happened had the Yorkist dynasty survived.

As a confirmed fan of King Richard III I have often reflected on what might have happened if he had won at Bosworth rather than lost the battle to Henry Tudor. As is so often the case, victory hung on such a slender thread, Richard’s betrayal by traitors. If he had fled the battlefield and regrouped in the North where he had strong support, would he have won his throne back? And if he had, would he have hung on to it or would there always have been usurpers coming along to challenge him and his Yorkist successors?  

From there is was a small hop in my reading to Pale Rose of England by Sandra Worth which tells the story of Perkin Warbeck from the perspective of his being Richard Plantagenet, the surviving son of King Edward IV. I had previously read Perkin by Ann Wroe and found it fascinating to speculate on whether Perkin was indeed Richard and what would have happened if he had taken back the throne from Henry VII. No succession of the Tudor dynasty! No six wives of Henry VIII! No Anne Boleyn, one of my history heroines. Well, presumably she would still have been born but maybe she would have married Henry Percy instead of Henry VIII and gone to live in Northumberland.

After Pale Rose of England I moved on to the early 18^th century and to Shores of Darkness by Diana Norman. I love her historical novels and this one grabbed me from the first. (Anyone read it? - it's a wonderful historical novel!) At Ashdown House we have a fabulous portrait collection bequeathed to William, 1^st Earl of Craven by Elizabeth of Bohemia. We tell the story of how it was Elizabeth’s grandson George who became King of England after the death of Queen Anne. (I feel a bit sorry for George I – he is so often portrayed as a distant German cousin whom no one liked very much but the truth is he had a cast iron claim to the throne of England as a direct descendant of King James I.) Anyway, amongst our portrait collection is a swoonworthy painting of Prince Rupert of the Rhine, Elizabeth’s son. William Craven was a great friend of Rupert’s and godfather to his illegitimate daughter Rupertina. But Rupert had another child, Dudley Bard, by the Honourable Frances Bard, daughter of Viscount Bellomont. Frances always claimed that she and Rupert were married and that she had the marriage licence to prove it. What if this were true and Rupert and Frances’s descendants had a better claim to the English throne than George? It’s a great premise for a story. (And there would have been no Regency period as we know it!)

There are so many points at which history could have turned out so differently and so many historical mysteries left unsolved. I was left wondering what it was about historical mysteries and historical speculation that so appeals to me. There’s something romantic about the not knowing and something intriguing about historical speculation. There’s the space to let your imagination roam over the possibilities and the “might have beens”. As writers we are constantly saying "what if." What if the plot twists in a particular way, what if this happens to our characters... What will they do? What happens next? It's no wonder that as historical writers - and readers - we are intrigued by alternative history and historical mysteries.

Do you have a favourite historical mystery? A moment in history you wish you could go back to witness to see what really happened? Or is there a historical event that you wish had turned out differently? 

Comments

[Margaret Blake]

Fascination speculation,Nicola. Had my hero Richard the Third survived would that mean England would still be a Roman Catholic Country? If there had not been an Elizabeth,what would have replaced the "Elizabethan age" ? It's great to speculate, thanks for doing so.

[Cate S]

What if the Romans never left England?

[Nicola Cornick]

That's a really interesting question about religion, Margaret. There are so many points along the way where that might have changed. And no Elizabethan age, in all its glory either!

Cate, I love speculating about the effect that would have had! Better baths and roads?

[Isobel Carr]

One of my big what if's is what if Princess Charlotte and her baby had survived? If a young queen had come to the throne directly after George IV’s death, and that queen was his daughter, with a son already in the nursery, how might that have altered our memory of George himself? Would he would have bequeathed his love of art and his acknowledged superior taste directly down the line? Would people remember him more as the First Gentleman of Europe than the obese spendthrift?

[Nicola Cornick]

Yes, that is an intriguing what if, Isobel. Maybe the succession of Charlotte and her descendants would have focussed more attention on George's positive rather than his negative qualities.

[Margaret Murray-Evans]

The Civil War...Battle of Campbell Station. My house sits in the battlefield. What would happen if my house disappeared and I'm thrown back in time standing in the middle of a battle?Or..I'm sitting around in a Confederate camp and I'm a Union spy. My great great grandfather fought for the Union. Five of his Uncles died in Andersonville Prison Camp. What if the prisoners had been rescued? What if???

[Nicola Cornick]

Wow, Margaret, what an interesting family history you have! That sort of past really engages the imagination. I love the idea of going back in time to see your ancestors play a part in the great events of the past.

[Liz]

Tey engendered my fascination with Richard III, but her book The Daughter of Time mentioned other examples of what Tey labeled "Tonypandy"--historical mystification, manipulation, and outright lies.

WWII seems to me a ripe era for speculation: what if Philby had been killed in Spain; why did Hess fly to Scotland; how much was the Yalta Conference manipulated by traitors; was Patton assassinated; who were the fifth (or 25th) Cambridge spy and their recruiter.

[theo]

Mary, Queen of Scots, by Antonia Fraser has fascinated me since it's original publication. I always wondered, what if? What if Mary Stuart had gained the throne from Elizabeth the first time she claimed it? What if her supporters managed to gain it while she was imprisoned?

Yup, fascinating to wonder where England and Scotland would be now.

[Nicola Cornick]

Oh yes, I had forgotten about "Tonypandy," Liz. There is a lot of it about! Some great opportunities for speculation around those topics you mention.

[Nicola Cornick]

Theo, there are a lot of what ifs around Mary, aren't there. It's another area where I have felt fascination since I read "A Traveller in Time" as a child, all about the Babington Plot. Just as with the Jacobites, the recusants always engaged my sympathy. There's something romantic about a lost cause... And so much opportunity for imaginative speculation as well.

[jayne]

What if LLewellyn the Last Prince of Wales had beaten Edward 1 in their last battle. May be Wales would not have been swallowed by England and we would have our representation on the British Union Flag, which we don't at the present time and never have done.
Have to also wonder as well what would have happened if my hero King Richard 111 had survived Boswell.?

[SusannahC]

My two big historical what ifs:
What is Henry I's daughter Matilda had succeeded in wresting the throne from her usurper cousin, King Stephen?
What if Princess Caroline and her baby had not died?

[Nicola Cornick]

Hi Jayne! So you are another Richard III fan!

I like your speculation about Llewellyn. Very interesting to consider Wales as a sovereign country.

Susannah, I really wish Matilda had won. The recent TV programme about her was so illuminating on how her attempts to take the throne were considered "unfeminine" by the standards of the time. She certainly gets my vote.

[Jasmine]

What if Richard the lionheart hadnt been gay,